PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Javonte Williams or Emanuel Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Javonte Williams: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Javonte Williams over Emanuel Wilson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 60% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (63%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Javonte Williams (p10 4.6). Need upside? Javonte Williams (p85 21.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Javonte Williams | 63% | RB14 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 23.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 37% | RB21 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 19.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Javonte Williams | 60% | RB15 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 21.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 40% | RB18 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 19.0 | |
| Standard | Javonte Williams | 56% | RB15 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 20.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 44% | RB17 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 18.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.