PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
James Cook III or Ashton Jeanty: who should I start in Week 4?
· James Cook III: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Ashton Jeanty: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: James Cook III edges Ashton Jeanty, outscoring him in 51.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Ashton Jeanty (53%). Standard: James Cook III (57%). Need a safe floor? James Cook III (p10 7.0). Need upside? James Cook III (p85 26.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | James Cook III | 47% | RB10 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 27.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 53% | RB8 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 28.4 | |
| Half-PPR | James Cook III | 52% | RB8 | 14.9 | 7.0 | 26.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 48% | RB10 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 25.8 | |
| Standard | James Cook III | 57% | RB7 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 25.4 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 43% | RB10 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 23.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.