PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Ja'Marr Chase or Garrett Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Ja'Marr Chase: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Ja'Marr Chase edges Garrett Wilson, outscoring him in 53.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (57%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 5.7). Need upside? Ja'Marr Chase (p85 27.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 51% | WR3 | 17.0 | 6.2 | 31.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 49% | WR5 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 27.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 54% | WR3 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 27.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | 46% | WR5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 22.1 | |
| Standard | Ja'Marr Chase | 57% | WR2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 23.3 |
| Garrett Wilson | 43% | WR10 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 16.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.