PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Garrett Wilson edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 54.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 4.8). Need upside? Garrett Wilson (p85 21.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Garrett Wilson | 57% | WR6 | 15.4 | 6.6 | 26.5 |
| Nico Collins | 43% | WR11 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 25.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Garrett Wilson | 55% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 21.8 |
| Nico Collins | 45% | WR11 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 21.7 | |
| Standard | Garrett Wilson | 52% | WR9 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 17.2 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR11 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 18.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.