PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
DK Metcalf or Jaylen Waddle: who should I start in Week 4?
· DK Metcalf: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Jaylen Waddle: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: DK Metcalf edges Jaylen Waddle, outscoring him in 50.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: DK Metcalf (51%). Standard: Jaylen Waddle (50%). Need a safe floor? DK Metcalf (p10 2.6). Need upside? DK Metcalf (p85 17.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | DK Metcalf | 51% | WR21 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 20.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 49% | WR22 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 20.2 | |
| Half-PPR | DK Metcalf | 50% | WR22 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 17.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 50% | WR23 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 17.0 | |
| Standard | DK Metcalf | 50% | WR22 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 13.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 50% | WR21 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 14.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.