PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
DJ Moore or Malik Nabers: who should I start in Week 4?
· DJ Moore: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Malik Nabers: NYG vs ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: DJ Moore edges Malik Nabers, outscoring him in 54.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? DJ Moore (p10 1.5). Need upside? DJ Moore (p85 16.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | DJ Moore | 54% | WR30 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 18.7 |
| Malik Nabers | 46% | WR33 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 17.1 | |
| Half-PPR | DJ Moore | 54% | WR29 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 16.1 |
| Malik Nabers | 46% | WR32 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 14.8 | |
| Standard | DJ Moore | 55% | WR27 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 13.7 |
| Malik Nabers | 45% | WR34 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 12.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.