PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
David Montgomery or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?
· David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · MarShawn Lloyd: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start David Montgomery over MarShawn Lloyd in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? David Montgomery (p10 1.9). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | David Montgomery | 57% | RB28 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 16.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 43% | RB34 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 15.1 | |
| Half-PPR | David Montgomery | 56% | RB29 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 15.5 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 44% | RB32 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 14.3 | |
| Standard | David Montgomery | 56% | RB28 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 14.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 44% | RB32 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 13.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.