PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Christian Watson or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Christian Watson: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Christian Watson edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 52.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Christian Watson (p10 3.3). Need upside? Christian Watson (p85 21.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Christian Watson | 52% | WR13 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 24.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR16 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 23.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Christian Watson | 52% | WR14 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 21.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR16 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 20.5 | |
| Standard | Christian Watson | 52% | WR13 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 17.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR15 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 17.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.