PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Braelon Allen or Jacory Croskey-Merritt: who should I start in Week 4?
· Braelon Allen: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jacory Croskey-Merritt: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Braelon Allen edges Jacory Croskey-Merritt, outscoring him in 51.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Braelon Allen (p10 2.0). Need upside? Braelon Allen (p85 15.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Braelon Allen | 53% | RB27 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 16.2 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 47% | RB30 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Braelon Allen | 52% | RB27 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 15.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 48% | RB30 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 14.9 | |
| Standard | Braelon Allen | 50% | RB27 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 14.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 50% | RB29 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 14.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.