PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bhayshul Tuten or Tony Pollard: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bhayshul Tuten: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tony Pollard: TEN vs BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Bhayshul Tuten edges Tony Pollard, outscoring him in 53.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Bhayshul Tuten (p10 3.5). Need upside? Bhayshul Tuten (p85 17.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 55% | RB20 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 18.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 45% | RB24 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 16.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 54% | RB21 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 17.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 46% | RB23 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 16.2 | |
| Standard | Bhayshul Tuten | 53% | RB20 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 16.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 47% | RB23 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 15.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.