PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Ashton Jeanty or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Ashton Jeanty: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Ashton Jeanty edges Kyren Williams, outscoring him in 54.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Ashton Jeanty (p10 6.0). Need upside? Ashton Jeanty (p85 25.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Ashton Jeanty | 57% | RB9 | 16.6 | 7.2 | 27.8 |
| Kyren Williams | 43% | RB12 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 24.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Ashton Jeanty | 55% | RB10 | 14.4 | 6.0 | 25.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 45% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 23.3 | |
| Standard | Ashton Jeanty | 52% | RB10 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 23.0 |
| Kyren Williams | 48% | RB11 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 22.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.