PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 51.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p10 4.4). Need upside? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p85 24.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | WR4 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 28.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR7 | 15.2 | 5.6 | 27.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 51% | WR5 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 24.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR6 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 23.7 | |
| Standard | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 50% | WR6 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 20.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 50% | WR5 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 19.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.