PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Alvin Kamara or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: J.K. Dobbins edges Alvin Kamara, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Alvin Kamara (52%). Standard: J.K. Dobbins (53%). Need a safe floor? J.K. Dobbins (p10 2.9). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 16.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Alvin Kamara | 52% | RB23 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 17.8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48% | RB26 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 17.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Alvin Kamara | 49% | RB23 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 16.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 51% | RB25 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 16.8 | |
| Standard | Alvin Kamara | 47% | RB24 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 15.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 53% | RB21 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 16.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.