PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Amon-Ra St. Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zay Flowers edges Amon-Ra St. Brown, outscoring him in 50.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (50%). Standard: Zay Flowers (53%). Need a safe floor? Zay Flowers (p10 4.4). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 25.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 50% | WR5 | 15.5 | 5.7 | 29.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 50% | WR4 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 28.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 51% | WR4 | 12.9 | 4.4 | 25.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49% | WR5 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 24.4 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 53% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 47% | WR6 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 20.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.