PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Tyler Warren or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyler Warren: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Start Tyler Warren over T.J. Hockenson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 59% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (59%) and standard (57%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Warren (p10 2.6). Need upside? Tyler Warren (p85 17.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Warren | 59% | TE3 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 21.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 41% | TE8 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Warren | 59% | TE5 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 17.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 41% | TE8 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 14.4 | |
| Standard | Tyler Warren | 57% | TE6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 13.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 43% | TE9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.