PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Tyler Warren or Sam LaPorta: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyler Warren: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Sam LaPorta: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tyler Warren edges Sam LaPorta, outscoring him in 53.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Warren (p10 2.6). Need upside? Tyler Warren (p85 17.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Warren | 55% | TE3 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 21.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 45% | TE6 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 19.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Warren | 54% | TE5 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 17.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 46% | TE6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 16.5 | |
| Standard | Tyler Warren | 52% | TE6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 13.4 |
| Sam LaPorta | 48% | TE7 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 13.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.