PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Tyler Shough or Trevor Lawrence: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyler Shough: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Trevor Lawrence: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Tyler Shough over Trevor Lawrence in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Shough (p10 10.1). Need upside? Tyler Shough (p85 29.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Shough | 56% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 44% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Shough | 56% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 44% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | Tyler Shough | 56% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 44% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.