PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Tyler Shough or Deshaun Watson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyler Shough: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Deshaun Watson: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Start Tyler Shough over Deshaun Watson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Deshaun Watson (p10 10.0). Need upside? Tyler Shough (p85 28.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Shough | 55% | QB3 | 18.8 | 9.9 | 28.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 45% | QB6 | 17.3 | 10.0 | 25.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Shough | 55% | QB3 | 18.8 | 9.9 | 28.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 45% | QB6 | 17.3 | 10.0 | 25.6 | |
| Standard | Tyler Shough | 55% | QB3 | 18.8 | 9.9 | 28.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 45% | QB6 | 17.3 | 10.0 | 25.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.