PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Tucker Kraft or AJ Barner: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tucker Kraft: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · AJ Barner: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tucker Kraft edges AJ Barner, outscoring him in 50.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Tucker Kraft (p10 1.2). Need upside? Tucker Kraft (p85 12.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tucker Kraft | 50% | TE13 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 15.4 |
| AJ Barner | 50% | TE14 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 15.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Tucker Kraft | 51% | TE12 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 12.9 |
| AJ Barner | 49% | TE14 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 12.8 | |
| Standard | Tucker Kraft | 52% | TE12 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 10.4 |
| AJ Barner | 48% | TE14 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 10.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.