PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Trey McBride or Juwan Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Trey McBride: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Start Trey McBride over Juwan Johnson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 58% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (59%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Trey McBride (p10 3.3). Need upside? Trey McBride (p85 21.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Trey McBride | 59% | TE1 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 26.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 41% | TE4 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 22.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Trey McBride | 58% | TE1 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 21.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | 42% | TE3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 18.6 | |
| Standard | Trey McBride | 56% | TE1 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 17.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 44% | TE3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 15.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.