PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Travis Kelce or Tyler Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
· Travis Kelce: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Tyler Warren: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tyler Warren edges Travis Kelce, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Tyler Warren (52%). Standard: Travis Kelce (53%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Warren (p10 2.6). Need upside? Travis Kelce (p85 17.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Travis Kelce | 48% | TE5 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 21.2 |
| Tyler Warren | 52% | TE3 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 21.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Travis Kelce | 50% | TE4 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 17.8 |
| Tyler Warren | 50% | TE5 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 17.2 | |
| Standard | Travis Kelce | 53% | TE3 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 14.5 |
| Tyler Warren | 47% | TE6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 13.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.