PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Travis Kelce: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Start Travis Kelce over T.J. Hockenson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (59%). Need a safe floor? Travis Kelce (p10 2.4). Need upside? Travis Kelce (p85 17.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Travis Kelce | 56% | TE5 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 20.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 44% | TE8 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 18.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Travis Kelce | 57% | TE5 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 17.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 43% | TE8 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 14.7 | |
| Standard | Travis Kelce | 59% | TE4 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 14.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 41% | TE9 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 11.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.