PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
T.J. Hockenson or Cade Otton: who should I start in Week 4?
· T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Cade Otton: TB vs GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: T.J. Hockenson edges Cade Otton, outscoring him in 53.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? T.J. Hockenson (p10 1.6). Need upside? T.J. Hockenson (p85 13.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | T.J. Hockenson | 54% | TE11 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 16.4 |
| Cade Otton | 46% | TE16 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 15.0 | |
| Half-PPR | T.J. Hockenson | 53% | TE12 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 13.3 |
| Cade Otton | 47% | TE15 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 12.2 | |
| Standard | T.J. Hockenson | 52% | TE13 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
| Cade Otton | 48% | TE15 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 9.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.