PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Saquon Barkley or Emanuel Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Saquon Barkley: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Saquon Barkley edges Emanuel Wilson, outscoring him in 51.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Saquon Barkley (54%). Standard: Emanuel Wilson (51%). Need a safe floor? Saquon Barkley (p10 3.8). Need upside? Emanuel Wilson (p85 19.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Saquon Barkley | 54% | RB17 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 19.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 46% | RB21 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 19.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Saquon Barkley | 52% | RB17 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 17.5 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 48% | RB18 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 19.0 | |
| Standard | Saquon Barkley | 49% | RB18 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 16.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 51% | RB17 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 18.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.