PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Sam LaPorta or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Sam LaPorta: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Start Sam LaPorta over T.J. Hockenson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Sam LaPorta (p10 2.1). Need upside? Sam LaPorta (p85 16.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Sam LaPorta | 54% | TE6 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 19.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 46% | TE8 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Sam LaPorta | 55% | TE6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 16.5 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 45% | TE8 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 14.4 | |
| Standard | Sam LaPorta | 56% | TE7 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 13.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 44% | TE9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.