PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Sam LaPorta or Dalton Kincaid: who should I start in Week 4?
· Sam LaPorta: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Dalton Kincaid: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Sam LaPorta edges Dalton Kincaid, outscoring him in 51.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Sam LaPorta (p10 1.9). Need upside? Sam LaPorta (p85 15.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Sam LaPorta | 52% | TE6 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 19.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 48% | TE8 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 18.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Sam LaPorta | 52% | TE5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 15.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 48% | TE8 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 15.4 | |
| Standard | Sam LaPorta | 50% | TE7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 12.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 50% | TE5 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 12.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.