PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Rashee Rice or Christian Watson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Rashee Rice: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Christian Watson: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Rashee Rice edges Christian Watson, outscoring him in 54.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Rashee Rice (p10 4.0). Need upside? Rashee Rice (p85 22.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Rashee Rice | 56% | WR11 | 14.3 | 5.4 | 26.1 |
| Christian Watson | 44% | WR13 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 24.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Rashee Rice | 55% | WR11 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 22.1 |
| Christian Watson | 45% | WR13 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 20.8 | |
| Standard | Rashee Rice | 53% | WR10 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 18.2 |
| Christian Watson | 47% | WR13 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 17.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.