PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Drake London: who should I start in Week 4?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Drake London: ATL vs NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Nico Collins edges Drake London, outscoring him in 51.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Drake London (p10 3.3). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 22.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 51% | WR14 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 25.4 |
| Drake London | 49% | WR15 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 23.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 51% | WR13 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 22.0 |
| Drake London | 49% | WR15 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 20.0 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 52% | WR12 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 18.8 |
| Drake London | 48% | WR16 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 16.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.