PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Dontayvion Wicks: who should I start in Week 4?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Dontayvion Wicks: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Nico Collins edges Dontayvion Wicks, outscoring him in 54.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Nico Collins (p10 3.3). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 21.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 55% | WR12 | 13.2 | 4.4 | 25.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 45% | WR17 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 23.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 54% | WR12 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 21.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 46% | WR15 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 20.1 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 53% | WR12 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 18.1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 47% | WR15 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 17.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.