PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Christian Watson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Christian Watson: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Nico Collins edges Christian Watson, outscoring him in 50.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Christian Watson (p10 3.3). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 22.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 51% | WR14 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 25.4 |
| Christian Watson | 49% | WR13 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 24.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 51% | WR13 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 22.0 |
| Christian Watson | 49% | WR14 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 21.2 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 51% | WR12 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 18.8 |
| Christian Watson | 49% | WR13 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 17.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.