PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Michael Wilson or Parker Washington: who should I start in Week 4?
· Michael Wilson: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Parker Washington: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Michael Wilson over Parker Washington in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Michael Wilson (p10 3.4). Need upside? Michael Wilson (p85 19.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Michael Wilson | 57% | WR14 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 22.9 |
| Parker Washington | 43% | WR22 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 21.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Michael Wilson | 56% | WR17 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 19.1 |
| Parker Washington | 44% | WR20 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 18.0 | |
| Standard | Michael Wilson | 54% | WR18 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 15.4 |
| Parker Washington | 46% | WR20 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 15.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.