PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Michael Wilson or Josh Downs: who should I start in Week 4?
· Michael Wilson: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Josh Downs: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Michael Wilson edges Josh Downs, outscoring him in 52.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Michael Wilson (p10 3.4). Need upside? Michael Wilson (p85 19.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Michael Wilson | 54% | WR14 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 22.9 |
| Josh Downs | 46% | WR19 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 22.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Michael Wilson | 53% | WR17 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 19.1 |
| Josh Downs | 47% | WR19 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 19.1 | |
| Standard | Michael Wilson | 52% | WR18 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 15.4 |
| Josh Downs | 48% | WR19 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 15.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.