PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Malik Nabers or Emeka Egbuka: who should I start in Week 4?
· Malik Nabers: NYG vs ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Emeka Egbuka: TB vs GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Malik Nabers edges Emeka Egbuka, outscoring him in 54.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Emeka Egbuka (p10 2.4). Need upside? Malik Nabers (p85 19.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Malik Nabers | 53% | WR26 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 22.5 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 47% | WR28 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 18.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Malik Nabers | 54% | WR25 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 19.7 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 46% | WR28 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 15.4 | |
| Standard | Malik Nabers | 55% | WR20 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 17.1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 45% | WR28 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 12.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.