PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough: who should I start in Week 4?
· Lamar Jackson: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tyler Shough: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Lamar Jackson edges Tyler Shough, outscoring him in 51.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Lamar Jackson (p10 11.0). Need upside? Lamar Jackson (p85 29.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Lamar Jackson | 52% | QB2 | 19.4 | 11.0 | 29.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 48% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Lamar Jackson | 52% | QB2 | 19.4 | 11.0 | 29.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 48% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 | |
| Standard | Lamar Jackson | 52% | QB2 | 19.4 | 11.0 | 29.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 48% | QB3 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 29.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.