PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Kenneth Walker III or Jaylen Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
· Kenneth Walker III: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Start Kenneth Walker III over Jaylen Warren in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Kenneth Walker III (p10 7.2). Need upside? Kenneth Walker III (p85 29.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kenneth Walker III | 57% | RB4 | 19.4 | 8.5 | 32.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 43% | RB5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 27.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Kenneth Walker III | 56% | RB4 | 17.4 | 7.2 | 29.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 44% | RB7 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 25.1 | |
| Standard | Kenneth Walker III | 55% | RB4 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 27.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 45% | RB8 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 23.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.