PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Kenneth Walker III or Aaron Jones Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Kenneth Walker III: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Kenneth Walker III edges Aaron Jones Sr., outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Kenneth Walker III (p10 7.0). Need upside? Kenneth Walker III (p85 28.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kenneth Walker III | 52% | RB5 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 30.2 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 48% | RB7 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 29.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Kenneth Walker III | 51% | RB5 | 16.3 | 7.0 | 28.5 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 49% | RB7 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 28.1 | |
| Standard | Kenneth Walker III | 51% | RB5 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 26.8 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 49% | RB6 | 14.6 | 5.7 | 26.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.