PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Juwan Johnson or Sam LaPorta: who should I start in Week 4?
· Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Sam LaPorta: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Juwan Johnson edges Sam LaPorta, outscoring him in 54.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Juwan Johnson (p10 2.2). Need upside? Juwan Johnson (p85 18.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Juwan Johnson | 55% | TE4 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 22.1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 45% | TE6 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 19.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Juwan Johnson | 55% | TE3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 18.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | 45% | TE5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 15.9 | |
| Standard | Juwan Johnson | 55% | TE3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 15.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 45% | TE7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 12.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.