PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Josh Downs or Michael Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Josh Downs: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Michael Wilson: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Josh Downs edges Michael Wilson, outscoring him in 51.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Michael Wilson (p10 2.9). Need upside? Josh Downs (p85 19.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Josh Downs | 50% | WR15 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 22.4 |
| Michael Wilson | 50% | WR16 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 21.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Josh Downs | 51% | WR16 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 19.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 49% | WR19 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 17.4 | |
| Standard | Josh Downs | 52% | WR17 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 15.9 |
| Michael Wilson | 48% | WR20 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 14.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.