PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jonathan Taylor or Aaron Jones Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jonathan Taylor: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jonathan Taylor edges Aaron Jones Sr., outscoring him in 53.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Jonathan Taylor (p10 7.8). Need upside? Jonathan Taylor (p85 29.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 55% | RB3 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 31.8 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 45% | RB7 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 30.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 54% | RB3 | 17.3 | 7.8 | 29.4 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 46% | RB6 | 16.1 | 6.7 | 28.5 | |
| Standard | Jonathan Taylor | 52% | RB4 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 27.3 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 48% | RB6 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 27.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.