PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or James Cook III: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · James Cook III: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: James Cook III edges Jaylen Warren, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Jaylen Warren (52%). Standard: James Cook III (53%). Need a safe floor? James Cook III (p10 7.0). Need upside? James Cook III (p85 26.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 52% | RB8 | 16.6 | 7.6 | 27.8 |
| James Cook III | 48% | RB10 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 27.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 50% | RB8 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 25.9 |
| James Cook III | 50% | RB9 | 14.9 | 7.0 | 26.3 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 47% | RB9 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 24.3 |
| James Cook III | 53% | RB7 | 14.1 | 6.5 | 25.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.