PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Chase Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Jaylen Warren over Chase Brown in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (56%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 6.7). Need upside? Jaylen Warren (p85 25.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 56% | RB8 | 16.6 | 7.6 | 27.8 |
| Chase Brown | 44% | RB11 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 25.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 57% | RB8 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 25.9 |
| Chase Brown | 43% | RB11 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 24.0 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 58% | RB9 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 24.3 |
| Chase Brown | 42% | RB12 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.