PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Zay Flowers: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba edges Zay Flowers, outscoring him in 54.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 5.1). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 26.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 55% | WR2 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 31.2 |
| Zay Flowers | 45% | WR5 | 15.5 | 5.7 | 29.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 54% | WR2 | 14.0 | 5.1 | 26.9 |
| Zay Flowers | 46% | WR4 | 12.9 | 4.4 | 25.6 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 53% | WR1 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 22.7 |
| Zay Flowers | 47% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.