PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Puka Nacua: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Puka Nacua: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Puka Nacua edges Jaxon Smith-Njigba, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Puka Nacua (51%). Standard: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (51%). Need a safe floor? Puka Nacua (p10 5.0). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 25.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 49% | WR3 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 29.3 |
| Puka Nacua | 51% | WR2 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 28.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 50% | WR3 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 25.3 |
| Puka Nacua | 50% | WR4 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 24.2 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.2 |
| Puka Nacua | 49% | WR4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 19.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.