PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Ja'Marr Chase: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Ja'Marr Chase: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Ja'Marr Chase in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (57%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 6.0). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 30.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 57% | WR1 | 19.6 | 7.9 | 35.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 43% | WR3 | 17.0 | 6.2 | 31.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 56% | WR1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 30.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 44% | WR3 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 27.5 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 56% | WR1 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 25.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 44% | WR2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 23.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.