PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
James Cook III or Chase Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· James Cook III: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start James Cook III over Chase Brown in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (60%). Need a safe floor? James Cook III (p10 7.0). Need upside? James Cook III (p85 26.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | James Cook III | 54% | RB10 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 27.0 |
| Chase Brown | 46% | RB11 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 25.6 | |
| Half-PPR | James Cook III | 57% | RB8 | 14.9 | 7.0 | 26.1 |
| Chase Brown | 43% | RB11 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 23.9 | |
| Standard | James Cook III | 60% | RB7 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 25.4 |
| Chase Brown | 40% | RB13 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.