PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba: who should I start in Week 4?
· Ja'Marr Chase: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Ja'Marr Chase over Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (59%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Ja'Marr Chase (p10 5.8). Need upside? Ja'Marr Chase (p85 28.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 59% | WR1 | 19.2 | 8.0 | 33.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 41% | WR3 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 29.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 57% | WR1 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 43% | WR3 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 25.3 | |
| Standard | Ja'Marr Chase | 55% | WR1 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 23.8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 45% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.