PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jahmyr Gibbs or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over Derrick Henry in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 59% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (62%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Jahmyr Gibbs (p10 9.1). Need upside? Jahmyr Gibbs (p85 33.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 62% | RB2 | 21.8 | 10.5 | 35.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 38% | RB6 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 29.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 59% | RB2 | 19.7 | 9.1 | 33.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 41% | RB4 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 28.1 | |
| Standard | Jahmyr Gibbs | 56% | RB2 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 31.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 44% | RB3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.