PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Bijan Robinson: ATL vs NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jahmyr Gibbs edges Bijan Robinson, outscoring him in 51.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Jahmyr Gibbs (p10 10.7). Need upside? Jahmyr Gibbs (p85 36.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 52% | RB1 | 24.7 | 12.4 | 39.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 48% | RB2 | 23.9 | 12.3 | 37.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 52% | RB1 | 22.2 | 10.7 | 36.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 48% | RB2 | 21.6 | 10.7 | 34.5 | |
| Standard | Jahmyr Gibbs | 52% | RB1 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 33.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 48% | RB2 | 19.3 | 8.9 | 32.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.