PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jacory Croskey-Merritt or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jacory Croskey-Merritt: WAS vs IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · MarShawn Lloyd: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt over MarShawn Lloyd in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Jacory Croskey-Merritt (p10 1.9). Need upside? Jacory Croskey-Merritt (p85 14.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 55% | RB30 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 45% | RB34 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 15.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 55% | RB30 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 14.9 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 45% | RB32 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 14.3 | |
| Standard | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 56% | RB29 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 14.2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 44% | RB32 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 13.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.