PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Jacoby Brissett or Brock Purdy: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jacoby Brissett: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Brock Purdy: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jacoby Brissett edges Brock Purdy, outscoring him in 50.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Jacoby Brissett (p10 9.1). Need upside? Brock Purdy (p85 26.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jacoby Brissett | 50% | QB10 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 26.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 50% | QB11 | 16.6 | 8.6 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Jacoby Brissett | 50% | QB10 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 26.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 50% | QB11 | 16.6 | 8.6 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | Jacoby Brissett | 50% | QB10 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 26.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 50% | QB11 | 16.6 | 8.6 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.